Next Solar Cycle Looks Very Weak

Via Anthony Watts:

“All Quiet Alert” – That sounds like an oxymoron, and maybe it is, but the sun is extremely quiet right now, so much in fact that the Solar Influences Data Center in Belgium has issued an “All quiet alert” on October 5th. Since then, the sunspot number has remained at zero.

The sun is blank–no sunspots.

There is talk about of an extended solar minimum occurring, or perhaps a recurrence of a Dalton or Maunder type minimum. There are signs that the sun’s activity is slowing. The solar wind has been decreasing in speed, and this is yet another indicator of a slowing in the suns magnetic dynamo. Below are near real-time (updated hourly)dials of Solar Wind speed, Solar Wind Density, and Interplanetary Magnetic Field. …

One thing is certain, based on past climate history and solar history, if in fact the suns magnetic activity slows, or collapses and we enter a prolonged period of little or no sunspot activity, we’ll see a global cooling trend.

It is still too early to tell, but pretty interesting none-the-less.

  • Mesa Econoguy

    It’s global warming.

    [Sorry. You left it out there…….]

  • markm

    Ice Age!!!
    um, maybe not
    Global Warming!!!
    Um, make that Global Climate Change!!!

    Global Ice Age!!!

    I just wonder how they’re going to blame solar variations on Bush and SUV’s?

  • Will Crump

    Can you explain why sunspot activity makes a difference in the warming effect of the sun on the Earth? Sun spots appear to be magnetic disturbances that do not significantly alter the heat input of the Sun into the Eath’s climate.

    Even if you show that sunspot activity has an impact on the year to year measurement of heat output of the Sun, how does this correlate into something that alters the Earth’s climate over a longer time scale since the sunspot cycle is an eleven year cycle? It would appear that the average impact of sunspot activity on the Earth would be zero when comparing the average of one 11 year cycle to another 11 year cycle as they would all have the same average level of input.

    Is there any study that meets the standards of Climate Skeptic that proves there is a correlation between sunspot activity and the thermal effect of the sun on the Earth or that shows there is something beyond the relatively short eleven year cycle that is a cause for concern in the climate of the Earth?

    What is the suppport from a computer model or scientific explanation that is being used to project future solar heat output that you are relying on to claim a future decline in solar warming and what is the expected impact in wm2 of this decline? What is the duration of this decline?

    When viewed over a 100 or 200 year time scale, what is the net decrease in Solar Activity and what impact is it expected to have on the Climate of the Earth from this “very weak Solar Cycle”?

    Are you claiming that the decline in sunspots means that the thermal input from the sun has declined over the last five years and therefore any indication of average temperature increase that has occurred over this period is being driven by factors other than the sun?

  • Mark

    Is the Climate Skeptic going to answer any of Will’s questions?

  • Dave

    I was just curious as to whether some one could tell me what the observed greenhouse sensitivity of water vapor is (how much greater of a heat retainer is H2O over CO2). Secondly ,if water vapor and CO2 gas have overlapping heat absorption bands, how much of an effect does the one diminish the other?