Comments on: Update on GCCI Post #4: Grid Outage Chart

By: Charlie

Charlie — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 18:17:33 +0000

Evan Mills, who is cited in the report as the source for the graph has a reply entitled “Grid Disruptions
Response to factual errors in the Climate Skeptic blog about the report, “Global Climate Change Impacts in the US”

http://eetd.lbl.gov/EMills/pubs/grid-disruptions.html

“The blogger (a self-admitted “amateur”) created a straw man argument by asserting that the chart was presented as evidence of global climate change and was not verified with the primary source. The blog’s errors have been propagated to other web sites without further fact checking or due diligence.”

By: Hey Skipper

Hey Skipper — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 23:26:42 +0000

He said that there may be an underlying upward trend out there (particularly in thunderstorms) …

Okay, let’s take that as stipulated: there has been an increase in convective weather activity as a consequence of GHG. Indeed, that would seem to be a deductive consequence of AGW theory.

Famously, GCMs predict climate, not weather. Yet convective activity is, by definition, weather. Further, convection, particularly when it takes the form of thunderstorms, takes huge amounts of warm air and hurls it towards the stratosphere, where there is nearly a direct radiation path to space.

In other words, presuming the climate is warming, the humidity driven increase in convection represents significant negative feedback.

(Full disclosure: I am not a meteorologist. However, as a professional pilot, I routinely get an up close and personal view of how much energy thunderstorms contain; sometimes so much that they go through the tropopause.)

By: Andy

Andy — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 23:44:22 +0000

I am curious how power outages can be a reliable source of weather information. Are the outages that they are trying to track, labeled as under reporting in the article, at the smaller utilities all weather related? What about a pole getting hit, a squirrel jumping a high voltage primary or a snake in a transformer? I work for a major retailer and receive all power outage reports for over 1000 stores in 49 states. The snake and squirrel were real examples just last week. Sure we have outages for weather, but most times it is a primary fuse, a tree falling, an underground line cut, etc. I am not sure how this can be a serious way to track weather or global warming, of course most of the methods to track global warming are not real anyway. Yes my truck is melting the ice caps, on Mars. It is called the the sun and natural cycles.

By: Francisco Moreno

Francisco Moreno — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 19:24:31 +0000

«Was he pleased or upset at the use of his data this way?»

This is a critical question. Pielke Jr publicly and proactively used the word “misrepresentation” with regard to the way his own data was used by GCCI.

What does Makins say?

By: Mike Abbott

Mike Abbott — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 19:09:35 +0000

Warren, I am pretty sure you misspelled the EIA guy’s last name. According to the contact list on the EIA web site, it is Makens.

By: Knight_of_the_Mind

Knight_of_the_Mind — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 15:37:23 +0000

Does the aging and mechanical deterioration of the grid factor in?

Thanks,

KOTM

By: kuhnkat

kuhnkat — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 22:41:09 +0000

Morris,

“We have dramatically altered how IR is being absorbed and emitted at different levels of the atmosphere.”

???????????????

I think you are trying to say the AMOUNT of IR being absorbed and reemitted??

I don’t believe we can change the physics involved.

Highlander,

did your babysitter teach you that phrase and show you how to type it in???

If not, please explain how it applies to this post.

By: DrTorch

DrTorch — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 20:33:40 +0000

“We have dramatically altered how IR is being absorbed and emitted at different levels of the atmosphere.”

I don’t think that’s been reliably demonstrated. Given the relatively low abundance of CO2, and it’s fairly low IR absorption, there is hot been a dramatic alteration. Adding in the effect from other “greenhouse gases” still leaves any effect fairly low.

By: Highlander

Highlander — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 20:21:14 +0000

As always, one ~must~ remember: The effect can ~never~ overcome the cause.

By: Olson

Olson — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 20:10:30 +0000

Also, don’t forget about the difference in storm preparedness in regions around the country. For example, if certain areas of the country do not trim trees around power lines properly you could theoretically have more outages. Certain utilities may not maintain as well as they should which probably shows nothing more that lack of care and not increased storm activity.

A final thought, over the last 20 years, more and more people are moving out away from urban areas causing larger and longer stretches of lines to be exposed to the elements as opposed to years past.