Comments on: Sun, PDO, and CO2 http://www.climate-skeptic.com/2008/10/sun-pdo-and-co2.html Sat, 11 Feb 2012 16:51:39 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.3 By: Tom B. http://www.climate-skeptic.com/2008/10/sun-pdo-and-co2.html/comment-page-1#comment-3426 Tom B. Fri, 14 Nov 2008 12:24:10 +0000 http://climate-movie.com/wordpress/2008/10/sun-pdo-and-co2.html#comment-3426 <p>I'm a bit puzzled by the absence of any discussion related to the physical generation of heat that results from our energy usage. There was a fairly good paper (or at least it made sense to me, "Global Warming is global energy storage" by Bo Nordell, I think you can find it in Google) that talked about the human generated heat (not gases, but actual heat). I think your 3 points are excellent, and seem to correlate nicely to reality, but I would suggest you take a look at Bo's paper and think about adding a 4th influence. Consider just the heat produced by automobiles, not a natural source in our climate, of which there are hundreds of millions, should not that have some (albeit small) measurable effect? Yet none of the skeptic sites seem to take any of this into account (no surprise that Realclimate would not consider it a significant source). Tom B.</p> I’m a bit puzzled by the absence of any discussion related to the physical generation of heat that results from our energy usage. There was a fairly good paper (or at least it made sense to me, “Global Warming is global energy storage” by Bo Nordell, I think you can find it in Google) that talked about the human generated heat (not gases, but actual heat). I think your 3 points are excellent, and seem to correlate nicely to reality, but I would suggest you take a look at Bo’s paper and think about adding a 4th influence. Consider just the heat produced by automobiles, not a natural source in our climate, of which there are hundreds of millions, should not that have some (albeit small) measurable effect? Yet none of the skeptic sites seem to take any of this into account (no surprise that Realclimate would not consider it a significant source). Tom B.

]]> By: Balance http://www.climate-skeptic.com/2008/10/sun-pdo-and-co2.html/comment-page-1#comment-3425 Balance Wed, 12 Nov 2008 09:25:42 +0000 http://climate-movie.com/wordpress/2008/10/sun-pdo-and-co2.html#comment-3425 <p>Hadcrut2 data, classified by hemisphere and season and resolved into linear trends and deviations from trends, reveal that the maximum trend increase, 0.51 degrees Celsius per 100 years, occurs in the northern winter. Winter trends are higher than summer's in both hemispheres, the northern difference being four times the southern one.</p> <p>Charting the 30-year moving average deviation from trend displays the cyclical nature of the temperature record. A "W" pattern is evident in both hemispheres, more stable in the southern one. The initial downward leg of the "W" is a long cooling and the final upward leg, the long current warming. The middle bits are mini-warmings and coolings.The middle part of the "W" is more pronounced in the northern hemisphere, particularly in the September-November autumn when the sun is exiting the hemisphere.<br /> <br /> What might explain these hemispherical and seasonal differences? It seems likely that the north's predominance of land and population relative to the south, which is mostly ocean, is highly relevant. It also seems reasonable to assume that more heat is generated in autumn and winter than in spring and summer and that over time the quantity of heat generated would increase with population. In other words, inadequate correction in the data for the urban heat island effect appears as a likely explanation. </p> Hadcrut2 data, classified by hemisphere and season and resolved into linear trends and deviations from trends, reveal that the maximum trend increase, 0.51 degrees Celsius per 100 years, occurs in the northern winter. Winter trends are higher than summer’s in both hemispheres, the northern difference being four times the southern one.

Charting the 30-year moving average deviation from trend displays the cyclical nature of the temperature record. A “W” pattern is evident in both hemispheres, more stable in the southern one. The initial downward leg of the “W” is a long cooling and the final upward leg, the long current warming. The middle bits are mini-warmings and coolings.The middle part of the “W” is more pronounced in the northern hemisphere, particularly in the September-November autumn when the sun is exiting the hemisphere.

What might explain these hemispherical and seasonal differences? It seems likely that the north’s predominance of land and population relative to the south, which is mostly ocean, is highly relevant. It also seems reasonable to assume that more heat is generated in autumn and winter than in spring and summer and that over time the quantity of heat generated would increase with population. In other words, inadequate correction in the data for the urban heat island effect appears as a likely explanation.

]]> By: Balance http://www.climate-skeptic.com/2008/10/sun-pdo-and-co2.html/comment-page-1#comment-3424 Balance Wed, 12 Nov 2008 09:24:17 +0000 http://climate-movie.com/wordpress/2008/10/sun-pdo-and-co2.html#comment-3424 <p>Hadcrut2 data, classified by hemisphere and season and resolved into linear trends and deviations from trends, reveal that the maximum trend increase, 0.51 degrees Celsius per 100 years, occurs in the northern winter. Winter trends are higher than summer's in both hemispheres, the northern difference being four times the southern one.</p> <p>Charting the 30-year moving average deviation from trend displays the cyclical nature of the temperature record. A "W" pattern is evident in both hemispheres, more stable in the southern one. The initial downward leg of the "W" is a long cooling and the final upward leg, the long current warming. The middle bits are mini-warmings and coolings.The middle part of the "W" is more pronounced in the northern hemisphere, particularly in the September-November autumn when the sun is exiting the hemisphere.<br /> <br /> What might explain these hemispherical and seasonal differences? It seems likely that the north's predominance of land and population relative to the south, which is mostly ocean, is highly relevant. It also seems reasonable to assume that more heat is generated in autumn and winter than in spring and summer and that over time the quantity of heat generated would increase with population. In other words, inadequate correction in the data for the urban heat island effect appears as a likely explanation. </p> Hadcrut2 data, classified by hemisphere and season and resolved into linear trends and deviations from trends, reveal that the maximum trend increase, 0.51 degrees Celsius per 100 years, occurs in the northern winter. Winter trends are higher than summer’s in both hemispheres, the northern difference being four times the southern one.

Charting the 30-year moving average deviation from trend displays the cyclical nature of the temperature record. A “W” pattern is evident in both hemispheres, more stable in the southern one. The initial downward leg of the “W” is a long cooling and the final upward leg, the long current warming. The middle bits are mini-warmings and coolings.The middle part of the “W” is more pronounced in the northern hemisphere, particularly in the September-November autumn when the sun is exiting the hemisphere.

What might explain these hemispherical and seasonal differences? It seems likely that the north’s predominance of land and population relative to the south, which is mostly ocean, is highly relevant. It also seems reasonable to assume that more heat is generated in autumn and winter than in spring and summer and that over time the quantity of heat generated would increase with population. In other words, inadequate correction in the data for the urban heat island effect appears as a likely explanation.

]]> By: Jeff http://www.climate-skeptic.com/2008/10/sun-pdo-and-co2.html/comment-page-1#comment-3423 Jeff Fri, 07 Nov 2008 13:07:31 +0000 http://climate-movie.com/wordpress/2008/10/sun-pdo-and-co2.html#comment-3423 <p>hunter - if you look up CO2 concentrations, you can work out what the forcing was from rising CO2 in the 19th century. Was it zero, positive or negative? You tell us.</p> <p>Gary Knight, Ph. D - you must think that your PhD is relevant. Is it in a climate-related field?</p> hunter – if you look up CO2 concentrations, you can work out what the forcing was from rising CO2 in the 19th century. Was it zero, positive or negative? You tell us.

Gary Knight, Ph. D – you must think that your PhD is relevant. Is it in a climate-related field?

]]> By: Gary Knight, Ph.D. http://www.climate-skeptic.com/2008/10/sun-pdo-and-co2.html/comment-page-1#comment-3422 Gary Knight, Ph.D. Mon, 03 Nov 2008 22:32:51 +0000 http://climate-movie.com/wordpress/2008/10/sun-pdo-and-co2.html#comment-3422 <p>Far from disputing an glbal warming trend overlaid on the cyclical PDO phases (and remember, there's a difference between phased, or cyclical, and strictly periodic patterns), Roy's latest papers attribute two-thirds of the increase to cloud-cover as correlted to the PDO. His study leaves adequate room for most of the remaining third to be ascribed to other solar effects including mantle heating and sunspot gamma-ray emmissions as they influence cloud-cover. The hat-tip to any CO2 die-hards is just that: a friendly gesture -- it certainly can't be take as proposing that human activity in 1850 melted any glaciers.</p> Far from disputing an glbal warming trend overlaid on the cyclical PDO phases (and remember, there’s a difference between phased, or cyclical, and strictly periodic patterns), Roy’s latest papers attribute two-thirds of the increase to cloud-cover as correlted to the PDO. His study leaves adequate room for most of the remaining third to be ascribed to other solar effects including mantle heating and sunspot gamma-ray emmissions as they influence cloud-cover. The hat-tip to any CO2 die-hards is just that: a friendly gesture — it certainly can’t be take as proposing that human activity in 1850 melted any glaciers.

]]> By: hunter http://www.climate-skeptic.com/2008/10/sun-pdo-and-co2.html/comment-page-1#comment-3421 hunter Fri, 31 Oct 2008 19:11:15 +0000 http://climate-movie.com/wordpress/2008/10/sun-pdo-and-co2.html#comment-3421 <p>Jeff,<br /> So now AGW was driving glaciers in the 19th century?<br /> as for your assertions about cyclical movement vs. trend, and the history of the world's temps, I would point out that playing with axis scales can emphasize or hide many things.<br /> For you to deny that temps over time have gone up and down is, I think any reasonable person would observe, a better example of impressive self-blinkering.</p> Jeff,
So now AGW was driving glaciers in the 19th century?
as for your assertions about cyclical movement vs. trend, and the history of the world’s temps, I would point out that playing with axis scales can emphasize or hide many things.
For you to deny that temps over time have gone up and down is, I think any reasonable person would observe, a better example of impressive self-blinkering.

]]> By: Flanagan http://www.climate-skeptic.com/2008/10/sun-pdo-and-co2.html/comment-page-1#comment-3420 Flanagan Thu, 30 Oct 2008 14:42:13 +0000 http://climate-movie.com/wordpress/2008/10/sun-pdo-and-co2.html#comment-3420 <p>Yes, numerous studies proved that solar activity cannot explain more than 30% of the observed warming. </p> Yes, numerous studies proved that solar activity cannot explain more than 30% of the observed warming.

]]> By: Jeff http://www.climate-skeptic.com/2008/10/sun-pdo-and-co2.html/comment-page-1#comment-3419 Jeff Wed, 29 Oct 2008 17:53:00 +0000 http://climate-movie.com/wordpress/2008/10/sun-pdo-and-co2.html#comment-3419 <p><i>Hasn't that been the history of the world's climate -- temperature goes up and then it goes down</i> - it takes impressive self-blinkering not to even be able to see the graph in this post that contradicts that statement.<br /> <i>And yet numerous other studies found solar variation can and does.</i> - no, they haven't.</p> Hasn’t that been the history of the world’s climate — temperature goes up and then it goes down – it takes impressive self-blinkering not to even be able to see the graph in this post that contradicts that statement.
And yet numerous other studies found solar variation can and does. – no, they haven’t.

]]> By: John Galt http://www.climate-skeptic.com/2008/10/sun-pdo-and-co2.html/comment-page-1#comment-3418 John Galt Wed, 29 Oct 2008 16:13:39 +0000 http://climate-movie.com/wordpress/2008/10/sun-pdo-and-co2.html#comment-3418 <p><i>a cyclical variation by definition cannot explain an upward trend in temperature</i></p> <p>What? Doesn't a cyclical variation go up and down? Won't there be an upward trend and then a downward trend? Hasn't that been the history of the world's climate -- temperature goes up and then it goes down. Repeat.</p> <p><i>Numerous studies have found that solar variation cannot explain recent rises in temperature</i></p> <p>And yet numerous other studies found solar variation can and does.</p> a cyclical variation by definition cannot explain an upward trend in temperature

What? Doesn’t a cyclical variation go up and down? Won’t there be an upward trend and then a downward trend? Hasn’t that been the history of the world’s climate — temperature goes up and then it goes down. Repeat.

Numerous studies have found that solar variation cannot explain recent rises in temperature

And yet numerous other studies found solar variation can and does.

]]> By: ElamBend http://www.climate-skeptic.com/2008/10/sun-pdo-and-co2.html/comment-page-1#comment-3417 ElamBend Sun, 26 Oct 2008 00:37:48 +0000 http://climate-movie.com/wordpress/2008/10/sun-pdo-and-co2.html#comment-3417 <p>That first chart reminds me of secular Bear and Bull market cycles.</p> That first chart reminds me of secular Bear and Bull market cycles.

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