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	<title>Comments on: Comments on NOAA USP Draft</title>
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	<link>http://www.climate-skeptic.com/2008/08/comments-on-noa.html</link>
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		<title>By: m_b</title>
		<link>http://www.climate-skeptic.com/2008/08/comments-on-noa.html/comment-page-1#comment-2904</link>
		<dc:creator>m_b</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Sep 2008 17:10:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climate-movie.com/wordpress/2008/08/comments-on-noa.html #comment-2904</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;Well we have been warming slightly over the past century (particularly towards the end), so an acceleration in sea levels would not be unexpected, but the figures don&#039;t look particularly strange or abnormal.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;However recent work has shown that the failure of the Antartic to warm as Climate Models predicted, combined with increased amounts of water vapour in the atmosphere due to slightly higher global temperatures, is leading to increased snowfall on the Antartic landmass. The hypothesis is that this may lock up more water, and it is suggested that a reduction in sea levels would not be unexpected.&lt;/p&gt;

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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Well we have been warming slightly over the past century (particularly towards the end), so an acceleration in sea levels would not be unexpected, but the figures don&#8217;t look particularly strange or abnormal.</p>
<p>However recent work has shown that the failure of the Antartic to warm as Climate Models predicted, combined with increased amounts of water vapour in the atmosphere due to slightly higher global temperatures, is leading to increased snowfall on the Antartic landmass. The hypothesis is that this may lock up more water, and it is suggested that a reduction in sea levels would not be unexpected.</p>
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		<title>By: Keith</title>
		<link>http://www.climate-skeptic.com/2008/08/comments-on-noa.html/comment-page-1#comment-2903</link>
		<dc:creator>Keith</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 21 Aug 2008 17:38:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climate-movie.com/wordpress/2008/08/comments-on-noa.html #comment-2903</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;From Anthony Watts&#039; &quot;Watt&#039;s Up With That?&quot; Blog - &lt;a rel=&quot;nofollow&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt; &lt;a href=&quot;http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/08/20/skeptics-win-one-noaa-pulls-the-ccsp-report/&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;NOAA Pulls CCSP Report &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;I guess the commentary made a difference.  &lt;/p&gt;

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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>From Anthony Watts&#8217; &#8220;Watt&#8217;s Up With That?&#8221; Blog &#8211; <a rel="nofollow" rel="nofollow"> </a><a href="http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/08/20/skeptics-win-one-noaa-pulls-the-ccsp-report/" rel="nofollow">NOAA Pulls CCSP Report </a></p>
<p>I guess the commentary made a difference.  </p>
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		<title>By: Keith</title>
		<link>http://www.climate-skeptic.com/2008/08/comments-on-noa.html/comment-page-1#comment-2902</link>
		<dc:creator>Keith</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 21 Aug 2008 17:37:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climate-movie.com/wordpress/2008/08/comments-on-noa.html #comment-2902</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;From Anthony Watts&#039; &quot;Watt&#039;s Up With That?&quot; Blog - &lt;a rel=&quot;nofollow&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt; &lt;a href=&quot;http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/08/20/skeptics-win-one-noaa-pulls-the-ccsp-report/&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;NOAA Pulls CCSP Report &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;I guess the commentary made a difference.  &lt;/p&gt;

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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>From Anthony Watts&#8217; &#8220;Watt&#8217;s Up With That?&#8221; Blog &#8211; <a rel="nofollow" rel="nofollow"> </a><a href="http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/08/20/skeptics-win-one-noaa-pulls-the-ccsp-report/" rel="nofollow">NOAA Pulls CCSP Report </a></p>
<p>I guess the commentary made a difference.  </p>
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		<title>By: Scientist</title>
		<link>http://www.climate-skeptic.com/2008/08/comments-on-noa.html/comment-page-1#comment-2901</link>
		<dc:creator>Scientist</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 Aug 2008 00:41:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climate-movie.com/wordpress/2008/08/comments-on-noa.html #comment-2901</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;hmmm - you are being fooled, I think, by a graph which compares monthly observations to annual predictions.  This is not a valid approach.  I recommend that you do some research yourself - get hold of the model predictions and annual average observations.  Normalise both to the same reference period.  Compare.  Be sure to consider the error values on each.  Report back with what you find.&lt;/p&gt;

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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>hmmm &#8211; you are being fooled, I think, by a graph which compares monthly observations to annual predictions.  This is not a valid approach.  I recommend that you do some research yourself &#8211; get hold of the model predictions and annual average observations.  Normalise both to the same reference period.  Compare.  Be sure to consider the error values on each.  Report back with what you find.</p>
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		<title>By: hmmm</title>
		<link>http://www.climate-skeptic.com/2008/08/comments-on-noa.html/comment-page-1#comment-2900</link>
		<dc:creator>hmmm</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 19 Aug 2008 11:27:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climate-movie.com/wordpress/2008/08/comments-on-noa.html #comment-2900</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;scientist,&lt;br /&gt;
since over that 10 years of data we are below the projected possible temperature predictions given years ago, even under the projected scenario where C02 production was mitigated (which it has not been), that does indicate a problem with the projection.  If it takes longer to prove the models correctly, then you are agreeing their projections indeed haven&#039;t been proven correct.  &lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;And please don&#039;t use how they &quot;match&quot; history as evidence their future predictions are accurate.  Any complex system with multiple variables and transient fudge factors can be made to match any trend line.  I could make multiple climate models that match history but which don&#039;t project the same future (they can&#039;t all be right).  &lt;/p&gt;

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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>scientist,<br />
since over that 10 years of data we are below the projected possible temperature predictions given years ago, even under the projected scenario where C02 production was mitigated (which it has not been), that does indicate a problem with the projection.  If it takes longer to prove the models correctly, then you are agreeing their projections indeed haven&#8217;t been proven correct.  </p>
<p>And please don&#8217;t use how they &#8220;match&#8221; history as evidence their future predictions are accurate.  Any complex system with multiple variables and transient fudge factors can be made to match any trend line.  I could make multiple climate models that match history but which don&#8217;t project the same future (they can&#8217;t all be right).  </p>
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		<title>By: kuhnkat</title>
		<link>http://www.climate-skeptic.com/2008/08/comments-on-noa.html/comment-page-1#comment-2899</link>
		<dc:creator>kuhnkat</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 15 Aug 2008 14:28:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climate-movie.com/wordpress/2008/08/comments-on-noa.html #comment-2899</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;Psyentist,&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;no, CO2 alarmism is not a useful contribution. Starting it with about 10 years of data was pointless except for nut jobs like Hansen, Gore, and YOU.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Making claims that the earth has totally changed the way the climate works because of .035 % of the atmosphere changing a tiny bit is even more ridiculous.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Claiming that the questionable trend in the last 30 years was outside of the norms for our climate system (whatever they really are) is even more ignorant.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;To the current point. The sea level rise for 1993 to current of about 3mm per year is even more questionable removing any usefulness of debating this paper.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Finally, the apparent DECREASE in sea level in the last 3 years shows that the oceans are NOT retaining excess heat and the boondoggle should be forgotten. We should return to trying to researching and understanding our environment without the perversions of BIASED research and reporting getting in the way.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;PS: try hunting down the tide gauge records for ALL the Hong Kong units for the period of 1970 to current and see which ones best match the 3mm scenario. THEN check and see which ones are KNOWN to be on subsiding land!!!!&lt;/p&gt;

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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Psyentist,</p>
<p>no, CO2 alarmism is not a useful contribution. Starting it with about 10 years of data was pointless except for nut jobs like Hansen, Gore, and YOU.</p>
<p>Making claims that the earth has totally changed the way the climate works because of .035 % of the atmosphere changing a tiny bit is even more ridiculous.</p>
<p>Claiming that the questionable trend in the last 30 years was outside of the norms for our climate system (whatever they really are) is even more ignorant.</p>
<p>To the current point. The sea level rise for 1993 to current of about 3mm per year is even more questionable removing any usefulness of debating this paper.</p>
<p>Finally, the apparent DECREASE in sea level in the last 3 years shows that the oceans are NOT retaining excess heat and the boondoggle should be forgotten. We should return to trying to researching and understanding our environment without the perversions of BIASED research and reporting getting in the way.</p>
<p>PS: try hunting down the tide gauge records for ALL the Hong Kong units for the period of 1970 to current and see which ones best match the 3mm scenario. THEN check and see which ones are KNOWN to be on subsiding land!!!!</p>
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		<title>By: DB, Ph.D.</title>
		<link>http://www.climate-skeptic.com/2008/08/comments-on-noa.html/comment-page-1#comment-2898</link>
		<dc:creator>DB, Ph.D.</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 15 Aug 2008 05:28:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climate-movie.com/wordpress/2008/08/comments-on-noa.html #comment-2898</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;It may be a mistake to focus only on sea levels in the CCSP document, but that has been the subject of this thread so here are a couple of more thoughts.  I read the abstract of the 2005 Church &amp; White paper to see if there was anything there that undermined my understanding of sea level rises, and I found none.  Perhaps there might be some enlightenment in the paper itself, so we should keep an open mind.  However, the highlight of the paper is that the authors, through a reconstruction, found an acceleration where none had been detected before.  That does not mean that their reconstruction is the only feasible way to understand sea levels.  We do not know if their method is more legitimate than others that did not detect the acceleration.  Also, it is not clear that the acceleration – if true -- implies different policy approach.  To prepare for sea levels that continue the past trend versus what happens with acceleration (e.g. 8 inches vs. 11 inches), the mitigation response is basically the same.  In addition, ironically, after Church &amp; White published their paper, sea levels subsequently stopped rising at all – much less accelerated.  I offer no forecast of whether this is a pause or a long term change in direction.  The pause (and slight decrease) has been long enough to notice.  Finally, the authors unfortunately solidified impressions that CSIRO is heavily influenced by political agenda.  They spent precious space in their abstract endorsing IPCC TAR rather than clarifying the specifics of their study.     &lt;/p&gt;

</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It may be a mistake to focus only on sea levels in the CCSP document, but that has been the subject of this thread so here are a couple of more thoughts.  I read the abstract of the 2005 Church &#038; White paper to see if there was anything there that undermined my understanding of sea level rises, and I found none.  Perhaps there might be some enlightenment in the paper itself, so we should keep an open mind.  However, the highlight of the paper is that the authors, through a reconstruction, found an acceleration where none had been detected before.  That does not mean that their reconstruction is the only feasible way to understand sea levels.  We do not know if their method is more legitimate than others that did not detect the acceleration.  Also, it is not clear that the acceleration – if true &#8212; implies different policy approach.  To prepare for sea levels that continue the past trend versus what happens with acceleration (e.g. 8 inches vs. 11 inches), the mitigation response is basically the same.  In addition, ironically, after Church &#038; White published their paper, sea levels subsequently stopped rising at all – much less accelerated.  I offer no forecast of whether this is a pause or a long term change in direction.  The pause (and slight decrease) has been long enough to notice.  Finally, the authors unfortunately solidified impressions that CSIRO is heavily influenced by political agenda.  They spent precious space in their abstract endorsing IPCC TAR rather than clarifying the specifics of their study.     </p>
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		<title>By: Keith</title>
		<link>http://www.climate-skeptic.com/2008/08/comments-on-noa.html/comment-page-1#comment-2897</link>
		<dc:creator>Keith</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 15 Aug 2008 01:37:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climate-movie.com/wordpress/2008/08/comments-on-noa.html #comment-2897</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;Don&#039;t worry, morganovich.  Scientist doesn&#039;t get my goat ever.  I admit freely to my math mistake on converting 195 millimeters to just under two meters instead the actual just under 8 inches, or the possible increase of just 14 inches.  Guess I has Al Gore&#039;s claim of nearly 10 meters percolating around in my brain.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;My point about the planetary effect is that when you are dealing with projecting a change in rate that is measured in microns, you need to make sure that you eliminate any other possible source of change.  If you dismiss an effect because it is only one ten thousandth of the total effect, you don&#039;t need to be citing changes that occur on or near that ten thousandth level. The study that Scientist&#039;s cites does approach those levels, so can he prove that they remembered to take that effect into account for the times when their data was collected?  The tidal effect of Venus spikes to its maximum value approximately every 15 months.  If you are study annual tidal levels, as Church &amp; White say they did, then this effect will be apparent based upon the scale they are using in approximately 80% of their data points.&lt;/p&gt;

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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Don&#8217;t worry, morganovich.  Scientist doesn&#8217;t get my goat ever.  I admit freely to my math mistake on converting 195 millimeters to just under two meters instead the actual just under 8 inches, or the possible increase of just 14 inches.  Guess I has Al Gore&#8217;s claim of nearly 10 meters percolating around in my brain.</p>
<p>My point about the planetary effect is that when you are dealing with projecting a change in rate that is measured in microns, you need to make sure that you eliminate any other possible source of change.  If you dismiss an effect because it is only one ten thousandth of the total effect, you don&#8217;t need to be citing changes that occur on or near that ten thousandth level. The study that Scientist&#8217;s cites does approach those levels, so can he prove that they remembered to take that effect into account for the times when their data was collected?  The tidal effect of Venus spikes to its maximum value approximately every 15 months.  If you are study annual tidal levels, as Church &#038; White say they did, then this effect will be apparent based upon the scale they are using in approximately 80% of their data points.</p>
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		<title>By: morganovich</title>
		<link>http://www.climate-skeptic.com/2008/08/comments-on-noa.html/comment-page-1#comment-2896</link>
		<dc:creator>morganovich</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 15 Aug 2008 00:57:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climate-movie.com/wordpress/2008/08/comments-on-noa.html #comment-2896</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;keith-&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;don&#039;t let scientroll snow you or bog you down in silly arguments (both of which are his trademarks).&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;greenland may well be gaining ice mass.  and it is certainly not unusually warm there at the moment compared to the last century or to warmer periods like the MWP.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;this is an interesting read on the topic:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Zwally, H. Jay; Giovinetto, Mario B.; Li, Jun; Cornejo, Helen G.; Beckley, Matthew A.; Brenner, Anita C.; Saba, Jack L.; Yi, Donghui (2005), Journal of Glaciology, Volume 51, Number 175, December, pp. 509-527(19)&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;and recent studies using the ARGOS system show no recent gains in ocean heat (though granted over a very short period as it is a very new system)&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;sceintroll knows this and has lost arguments about it on this site already.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;he&#039;s just being deliberately difficult and trying to waste your time.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;

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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>keith-</p>
<p>don&#8217;t let scientroll snow you or bog you down in silly arguments (both of which are his trademarks).</p>
<p>greenland may well be gaining ice mass.  and it is certainly not unusually warm there at the moment compared to the last century or to warmer periods like the MWP.</p>
<p>this is an interesting read on the topic:</p>
<p>Zwally, H. Jay; Giovinetto, Mario B.; Li, Jun; Cornejo, Helen G.; Beckley, Matthew A.; Brenner, Anita C.; Saba, Jack L.; Yi, Donghui (2005), Journal of Glaciology, Volume 51, Number 175, December, pp. 509-527(19)</p>
<p>and recent studies using the ARGOS system show no recent gains in ocean heat (though granted over a very short period as it is a very new system)</p>
<p>sceintroll knows this and has lost arguments about it on this site already.</p>
<p>he&#8217;s just being deliberately difficult and trying to waste your time.</p>
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		<title>By: Scientist</title>
		<link>http://www.climate-skeptic.com/2008/08/comments-on-noa.html/comment-page-1#comment-2895</link>
		<dc:creator>Scientist</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 14 Aug 2008 23:20:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climate-movie.com/wordpress/2008/08/comments-on-noa.html #comment-2895</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;So, Keith, now that you&#039;ve got a firm grasp of SI prefixes, tell us what 280mm and 340mm are in metres.  Your previous guess was 2.8 and 3.4 metres.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;You shout &lt;i&gt;13 to 20 YEARS&lt;/i&gt; as if you are telling us something new.  What&#039;s your point?  And why do you think that sea levels might stop rising?  How do you heat up water without making it expand?  Where else is the 100 billion tonnes of Greenlandic ice going each year?&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;The difference between tides and mean sea level apparently eludes you.  From the paper you quoted, the error on satellite sea level measurements is of the order of ±2cm. Tidal range is irrelevant.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Planets are also irrelevant.  I&#039;m sure if you really think about it you can work out why.&lt;/p&gt;

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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>So, Keith, now that you&#8217;ve got a firm grasp of SI prefixes, tell us what 280mm and 340mm are in metres.  Your previous guess was 2.8 and 3.4 metres.</p>
<p>You shout <i>13 to 20 YEARS</i> as if you are telling us something new.  What&#8217;s your point?  And why do you think that sea levels might stop rising?  How do you heat up water without making it expand?  Where else is the 100 billion tonnes of Greenlandic ice going each year?</p>
<p>The difference between tides and mean sea level apparently eludes you.  From the paper you quoted, the error on satellite sea level measurements is of the order of ±2cm. Tidal range is irrelevant.</p>
<p>Planets are also irrelevant.  I&#8217;m sure if you really think about it you can work out why.</p>
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