In the comments:

Of course we are [responding irrationally to high fuel prices], see this from CNN. People cutting back on mass transit, police, road repair and maintenance.

I’ll add that I think people are driving less efficiently and communities are probably not managing traffic lights well, further driving down fuel efficiency.

I plotted gas consumption and vehicle miles driven one year change for Jan 07 to April 08. When the change in gas comsumption is bigger than the change in miles driven, fuel efficiency is declining. There are huge declines in efficiency in Feb 08 and March 08.

Interestingly, I also happened upon a report (via futurepundit) that says gasoline consumption is down 1.7%, the first significant reduction in consumption in 17 years. In August 1990, oil prices spiked upward. We entered a recession in September 1990 until September 1991.

Let’s change the NA for NAU or better yet, for the World. Why not?
And you end up with world wages and world standard of living. Why not?

BTW. I read the US citizens receive food stamps (attribute of war, third world country, or sociaslism). I remember the times of food stamps here in Poland in the first half of 80s, a decade+ before our communism has fallen. Are you living in socialism still or in communism yet?

Regards,
Przemysław Pawełczyk

I think your post just gave me an erection.

In all seriousness, thanks for posting that. I had no idea about some of the things you mentioned.

Your comments about industries choosing th stay in NA is currently accurate. I wonder, however, if that will continue to be the case when/if carbon credits or carbon taxes make their activities unprofitable. Time will tell.

The tonnage of Steel produced by America is about as high as it ever was, and suitable for a well developed country. The players in the business are new, and include foreign owners. Traditional makers using 3% iron oxide ore are fading; but they have lost out to those makers making steel from 95% steel “ore” (ie scrap). The US steel industry is now the most energy efficient in the world. And only it has access to large “mines” of 95% steel “ore”.

Native US automakers have declined, but the numbers of autos assembled in NA has continued to slowly grow.
Once again the players are different and include a lot of foreign makers. But so what? Is a Toyota plant in Alabama or a Nissan factory in Tennessee any less a maker of autos than ancient abandoned plant in Detroit?

Certainly there are many industries that have gone overseas, but it’s not as much as you would think. There is also a reverse migration underway, as industries discover they can’t be as responsive when thier factoies are a continent away.

The US dollar is stressed serving as both the international currency and a domestic money as well. Its decline has shocked many a busineman and who is faced with unfavorable exchange rates for the first time in that direction.

Teher si a cultivated malasie inAmerica that we are not doing well. Certainly theri is a short teerm energy price siisue. But beyond the next few years, a glowing future beckons. The US is solving its problems.

For several reasons there is a feeling that the US has pollution problems, and the Cjhicken Littleisim of AGW adds to that. But trh US energy problesm are very short term. tehr eris fainally a substitute for transport. Copious energy supplies are coming without resort to fossil. America has almost completed its efforts in cleasing its environment. Its air water are cleaner than any where else inthe world and its standards are literally decades ahead of even the EU. Nuclear fission has been perfected and the obstacles to cosntructing it removed. Fusion energy is coming inexhorably. But it is not widely recognized. It has faced its racial problems and has worked to close them.

The nature of political advocacy never allows one to claim success. The practicing Racists in America, like J Jackson, can’t admit that de facto and de jure black racism is dead. They would be out of jobs.

The enviromental organizations could never admit that the air is virtually clean everywhere but California, or their doantion appeals would die. There isi also an industry of tort attorneys who have grown up extorting sums for percieved slights. They can never admit that most coal miners with silicosis are dead; children eating lead paint are microscopic and leadapinthasn’t been made in 20 years or more. People dying from asbestos don’t exist any more. Tobacco smoking has had a massive decline.
they must find new extortable threats or starve. So they stil advertise that the US is an unhealthy place, medicines are suspect, and of course, this is counter to the rising life expectancy.

With all the propagnda that the world is going to hell in handbasket being disseminated, for various reasons, and largely false, is it any wonder that there is a temporary funk.

The formula is (1.025)^5 = 1.1314+. That’s where I got the 13 1/7 %.
Now you can plug in your (1.011)^10 figure and get an 11.56% increase,
so your statement “1.1% x 10 yr will match your 13 1/7%” is also wrong.

@Alan McIntire
False inference. Nota bene 9% x 5 = 45%+ (ther’s a formula for that which will give well over 50%). You are good at numbers, pretty bad in logic. 1.1% x 10 yr will match your 13 1/7% and “That’s well outside statistical noise.-” What of it? Will you still claim it is “outside statistical noise” or “pretty high”? C’mon, gimme a break! Think!
Regards

figure 2-2.5% inflation and you are looking at 4.5%-5% nominal growth which is pretty high for a large, developed economy.