As to Ice-out conditions. I found out it occurs when water temps > 40 degrees F.

I am requesting water temp time series records from the DOW.

I still did not see that Mr Scientist looked through the records for lake water flows and posted his data. That tells me he or she is not a Scientist.

Now back to reality…

So we are at the top of the curve, the graph shows that this is not abnormal in any way. Indeed, we are above the average of the past 1,000,000 years. The graph does not prove that it is any warmer than it has been several times in the past 1,000,000 years. It also shows that we are, thankfully, not in an ice age. My question remains, what of it? If we are within the boundaries of the max and min on the graph, there is no catastrophic problem. Or do you argue that if we are not at the average we are in some sort of climate catastrophe?

morganovich – learn to read, yeah? Seen the webcam image? It did not look ’solid’ on the 25th, and there appears to be no ice today (29th). I consider that contradictory evidence.

here’s the long term average (and it’s a better average than you suggest using and as it goes further back, it will be colder than recent periods)

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/vacationplanner/climatology/monthly/81230

april: low 22 high 54 avg: 38 (note that this is the max/min methodology the GISS uses)

this year:

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/vacationplanner/monthly/81230

avg low MTD: 21.9

avg high MTD: 48.2

avg: 35.05

so avg temp seems to be 3 degrees below the monthly avg so far. granted, it could warm in the remainder of the month, but it’s still been quite cold.

More significantly, average highs are nearly 6 degrees low as of 4/23.

you owe me $100.

or are you going to try to cherry pick one warm day in a cold month and call it climate?

BTW:

did you see the other post showing that the lake was still frozen solid as of 4/25.

is that what you are calling a lie? can you possibly be disputing direct local observation and providing no contradictory evidence?

I also think it’s stupid to even discuss what is happening in one location during one month, on a blog nominally about global warming. You understand the difference between Colorado and the Earth, yes? And the difference between weather and climate? That last one does cause a lot of people great difficulty.

I must remind you that earlier, in your usual barely-literate way you said i’ll bet you another $100 it’s well below average temp there this year, to which I replied I’ll also take that $100 bet on temperatures right now (as in, today, 22 April 2008) in relation to average (defined as 1961-1990). Seeing as you offered the bet and I accepted, do you want to look up the actual figures?

and your bet is asinine if you want to bet on the accuracy of what was claimed. that’s not what he said. again you prove that your ability to read and understand simple sentences is utterly lacking.

“It is by far the latest any local can remember the lake being fully covered in ice, at least for the last 30 years.”

his claim is “fully covered in ice”. that’s not ice out. that’s frozen solid. ice out means 90%+ free of ice and navigable.

if you want to bet that this year it the latest the whole lake has been frozen for 30 years, you’re on.

And it looks like you are yet another denier who can’t even manage to link to a document. I guess you mean . Well, guess who put that line there? If you’re not totally stupid you should be able to have a guess. It’s a lie, as I showed earlier.

As of April 25, 2008, the lake is still totally frozen! This is the latest the lake has been frozen in anyone’s memory. If you are planning an early May visit, please call ahead before you come.